Colts Go West in Must-Win for Chargers
Football Betting Lines
11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts' season was at a crossroads just a few short weeks ago, until a resurgence led by their legendary quarterback put the annual postseason participants back in the playoff mix. The San Diego Chargers are now faced with a similar juncture at this point of their 2008 campaign.
With their backs squarely against the wall, the Chargers return to Qualcomm Stadium this Sunday for a pivotal showdown with a red-hot Colts team that has its sights set on a fourth consecutive win.
Save for a couple of home victories over AFC East contenders New England and the New York Jets, San Diego has hardly resembled the powerhouse which shattered the Colts' Super Bowl dreams with a 28-24 triumph in Indianapolis during last season's conference Divisional Playoffs. The talented Chargers have floundered their way to an inexplicable 4-6 record thus far and come in having lost three of their last four games, with the lone win over that rough patch a one-point verdict at home over doormat Kansas City.
Despite its season-long underachievement, San Diego still stands a reasonable chance of capturing a third straight AFC West title if it can find itself down the stretch. The Chargers currently sit two games off Denver's lead atop the division and have four of their six remaining regular-season tilts at Qualcomm Stadium, including a matchup with the Broncos in the December 28 finale.
San Diego will begin a sequence of three home games in a row on Sunday and is 3-1 as the host this season, with a two-point setback to NFC South leader Carolina in the season opener the club's only blemish.
While the Chargers are reeling entering this critical clash, Indianapolis is flying high with three wins in a row. The surge has placed the 6-4 Colts on solid footing in regards to a Wild Card berth in the AFC, which would extend their string of playoff appearances under head coach Tony Dungy to seven.
Indianapolis' recent run has coincided with a return to form from quarterback Peyton Manning, with the two-time NFL MVP overcoming some early-season struggles to put together three outstanding games. Over the course of the Colts' winning streak, the perennial Pro Bowl participant has thrown for 814 yards and seven touchdowns and has not been intercepted.
Manning was again the x-factor in Indy's latest victory, a hard-fought 33-27 decision over visiting Houston last Sunday in which the star triggerman amassed a season-high 320 passing yards and delivered a pair of second-half scoring strikes.
The Chargers will be attempting to regroup from a painful, narrow loss at AFC North front-runner Pittsburgh this past weekend. Steelers kicker Jeff Reed extended San Diego's woes with a 32-yard field goal with 11 seconds left to play that lifted his team to an 11-10 win.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chargers hold a 14-8 advantage in the all-time regular season series with the Colts, including a 23-21 home win when the teams met in Week 10 of last season. Indianapolis is 0-2 in regular season games against San Diego since defeating them, 34-31 in overtime, in 2004. The Colts last won in San Diego in 1999.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have split a pair of postseason games. The Colts claimed a 35-20 win in a 1995 AFC First-Round Playoff, and the Chargers returned the favor with a 28-24 win in an AFC Divisional Playoff, also the final game in the history of the RCA Dome.
Dungy is 2-2 all-time against San Diego, including a win for his Buccaneers in the 1996 season. The Chargers' Norv Turner is 3-3 all-time against Indianapolis, including 1-2 while head coach in Washington (1994-2000). Turner is 2-2 head-to-head against Dungy, including a loss for his Raiders to Indy in 2004.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
With Manning (2568 passing yards, 17 TD, 9 INT) in an obvious groove right now and the Chargers having been extremely susceptible to strong aerial attacks all year long, expect the Colts to ride the right arm of their decorated signal-caller throughout Sunday's contest. He has averaged 271.3 passing yards per game while not committing a turnover during Indianapolis' current winning streak and has a wealth of outstanding receiving options in the NFL's sixth- ranked passing offense (249.6 ypg), the most dangerous of which is All-Pro wideout Reggie Wayne (56 receptions, 790 yards, 5 TD). Tight end Dallas Clark (39 receptions, 3 TD) and second-year slotman Anthony Gonzalez (40 receptions, 2 TD) are also highly-reliable targets, while future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (39 receptions, 4 TD) is coming off one of his best games of what's been a trying year. The 36-year-old wide receiver hauled in a season-best nine Manning passes for 77 yards and a touchdown against Houston last week.
Manning and his accomplished corps of receivers will be airing it out against a San Diego secondary that has been routinely picked apart by enemy quarterbacks in 2008. The Chargers are allowing a league-worst 267 passing yards per game and have had trouble forcing turnovers, one of the defense's strengths a year ago. Quentin Jammer (59 tackles, 1 INT, 16 PD) has been solid at one corner, but athletic counterpart Antonio Cromartie (50 tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD) has been dealing with a nagging hip injury that has reduced the 2007 Pro Bowler's effectiveness, and safeties Eric Weddle (78 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) and Clinton Hart (49 tackles, 6 PD) have often been liabilities in coverage. The pass rush has been spotty as well with havoc-wreaking outside linebacker Shawne Merriman out for the season with torn ligaments in his left knee, as neither Shaun Phillips (49 tackles, 4 sacks) nor Jyles Tucker (21 tackles, 4 sacks) have been able to match the All-Pro's undeniable impact.
The Colts have had their problems running the ball on offense, with injuries to standout running back Joseph Addai (387 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 6 total TD) and across the offensive line contributing greatly to the team's league-low output of 77.7 yards per game on the ground. Addai seems to be recovered from a hamstring strain that rendered him inactive for two games in October, and the third-year pro showed off his good health by rushing for a season-best 105 yards on 22 carries against the Texans last week, and adding 48 yards on four catches. He'll be spelled at times by serviceable vet Dominic Rhodes (338 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 4 total TD), who's a valuable receiver out of the backfield as well.
San Diego ranks a respectable 14th against the run (105.2 ypg) and has improved in that area since inserting Tim Dobbins (38 tackles, 1 INT, 3 forced fumbles) into a starting role at inside linebacker opposite the ultra- productive Stephen Cooper (53 tackles, 1.5 sacks) in Week 6. The defense may be without one of its best stoppers up front on Sunday, as sturdy end Luis Castillo (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) left last weekend's loss with a groin strain and is highly questionable to face the Colts. Fill-in Jacques Cesaire (12 tackles, 2 sacks) did notch a pair of sacks against the Steelers after replacing Castillo, however.
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
With game-changing running back LaDainian Tomlinson enduring a down season due to a lingering turf toe problem, the Chargers have relied more on fiery quarterback Philip Rivers (2518 passing yards, 21 TD, 10 INT) to move the offense. The results have been mixed. Rivers leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes and tops the AFC with a 100.9 passer rating, but the former first-round pick has thrown in a few clunkers to go with a number of stellar outings. He's been intercepted four times over the last two weeks and managed just 164 yards on 15-of-26 passing against Pittsburgh's top-notch defense last Sunday. Still, San Diego is seventh in the league in passing offense (243.1 ypg) and has gotten a breakthrough year out of physical wide receiver Vincent Jackson (37 receptions, 646 yards, 4 TD), a 6-foot-5, 240-pound target with speed who presents matchup problems for opposing quarterbacks. His emergence has been essential to the offense, since four-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates (40 receptions, 6 TD) and veteran wideout Chris Chambers (19 receptions, 5 TD) have been slowed by injuries at times this year.
Rivers gets another stern challenge again this week, as the Colts' ninth- ranked pass defense (189.4 ypg) has yielded only two touchdowns through the air through the first 10 games. Indy has survived a season-ending knee injury to regular corner Marlin Jackson and knee and hamstring problems to fellow cover man Kelvin Hayden (17 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD) that have sidelined him for the past six games, as substitutes Tim Jennings (44 tackles, 2 INT) and Keiwan Ratliff (21 tackles, 1 INT) have both held their own. Top pass rusher Dwight Freeney (18 tackles, 7 sacks) has stepped up his play as well lately after a slow start, with the three-time Pro Bowl end having recorded four sacks in the last two weeks. Dungy is hopeful that Hayden can return to action for Sunday's test, but he figures to be a game-time decision.
The Colts' speed-based defense can be quite vulnerable to power running games, and the unit was burned for 156 yards on just 14 carries by Houston rookie Steve Slaton last Sunday, with a good chunk of that total coming on a 71-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Indianapolis is allowing a subpar 138.5 yards per game on the ground (25th overall) and will likely be without dynamic strong safety Bob Sanders (28 tackles, 1 INT) again this week. The reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year has played in just four games this year due to knee surgery and now a high ankle sprain. Second-year pro Melvin Bullitt (50 tackles, 6 PD) has compiled a team-best four interceptions in Sanders' place, but he's not as skilled in defending the run. The team will have leading tackler Gary Brackett (88 tackles), who's garnered at least eight stops in five straight games, in the lineup for Sunday's matchup at the all- important middle linebacker spot.
The Chargers are hoping Indianapolis' shaky run defense will enable Tomlinson (686 rushing yards, 6 total TD) to get untracked. The former league MVP has produced only two 100-yard days this season, and his present 3.8 yards per carry average is the superstar back's lowest since his rookie campaign of 2001. Tomlinson is still a weapon to account for in the passing game, as his 36 receptions and 299 receiving yards are the third-most among San Diego players. The Chargers are a disappointing 27th overall in rushing offense (93.1 ypg) and ran for a paltry 66 yards on the tough Steelers' D last Sunday.
FANTASY FOCUS
Manning owners have been rejoicing over their prized quarterback's recent wave of huge fantasy days, and there's no reason to believe his streak of heavy point totals won't continue against a San Diego defense that has too often not had an answer against the pass. Wayne should be in line for a big afternoon as well come Sunday, and Clark is a must-start at the tight end spot because the Chargers have been particularly powerless in stopping that position. Harrison and Gonzalez are riskier bets for Indianapolis, but the potential is there for both receivers to have productive games. Tomlinson and Addai, two consensus first-round picks in preseason drafts, haven't quite lived up to their lofty status, but both running backs still warrant a place in weekly lineups. Rivers has earned his place as a top-tier fantasy quarterback and usually plays very well at home, so feel free to ride him again this week. Gates and Vincent Jackson also merit starting consideration on the San Diego side.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The importance of this game for San Diego cannot be understated, but will it really matter? The Chargers haven't put together a performance fitting of a playoff participant in over a month, and it's questionable as to whether one will come against an Indianapolis team that's been playing its best ball as of late. This isn't the same San Diego defense that has given Manning fits in the past, and the well-prepared quarterback shouldn't have much of a problem finding open receivers on Sunday. Rivers does have the weapons to keep up in a shootout, but his team is going to need to win the turnover battle like it did in its two meetings with Indianapolis a year ago, and that's been an ongoing problem for San Diego throughout this season. The Chargers used to match up very well with the Colts, but with Merriman sidelined and Tomlinson a shadow of his former self, that's no longer an issue.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Chargers 26
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MySportsbook.com refunds all bets on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay from NFL week one.
(September 14) – Week one of NFL action saw three teams go scoreless for the first time since 1977. Another four were unable to get a touchdown and almost half of the underdogs covered the spread. Those three teams saved bettors at MySportsbook.com from losing out completely, thanks to the company’s unique NFL Shutout Rule -- which ensures that if the team you backed goes scoreless, your wager is refunded.
Sportsbook refunded tens of thousands of dollars to customers who bet on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the three teams that stunk up the field so badly that their fans and backers never had a chance to get up from their couches and cheer. In the spirit of the low scoring start to the season, odds makers at the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino have set odds on how many total shutouts there will be this season.
MySportsbook.com has posted updated sports betting lines for week two of the season. Ben Roethlisberger’s health status is still questionable, so Willie Parker will try to lead Pittsburgh again as they travel to Jacksonville as a one point favorite. After beating up on his little brother last week, Peyton Manning will look to lead the Colts to victory against Houston. Indianapolis is a whopping 13.5 favorite in the match-up.
Seattle, last year’s highest scoring team, showed the power of their defense with their gritty 9-6 win in Motown over the ravenous Lions. They take their act back home to the comforts of Qwest Field where they will face the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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